WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f9beeeb3af10967658a668a1daafa0b14b59a2735a890f21177fc147777f3a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dallas Wingsof Dallas Wings, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Dallas Wings | 60c | 8,464$5,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.51 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 5,069$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.8 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 1,966$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.01 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639c…31e2backed Dallas Wings | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 1,400$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 1,338$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.93 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 905.08$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.78 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 889.07$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings | 55c | 875.97$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.19 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Dallas Wings | 64c | 712.18$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.73 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury | 36c | 593$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.87 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 499.64$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.65 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Dallas Wings | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 415.64$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.35 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 404$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Dallas Wings | 53c | 325.94$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +11.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 226.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Dallas Wings | 51c | 220$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 181.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Phoenix Mercury | 28c | 161.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 34c | 81.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 79.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 70.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 69.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Phoenix Mercury | 23c | 48.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…b41fbacked Dallas Wings | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 47.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Dallas Wings | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…650abacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 23.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…e566backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas WingsDallas Wings won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5)Dallas Wings won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5)Dallas Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.