WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66c33e5debfa51d8ba76b3f516dea0ceba450087fef79730ff22ba2032219edc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dallas Wingsof Dallas Wings, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Dallas Wings | 55c | 8,202$4,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.83 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 7,409$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 980.17$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.67 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Dallas Wings | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Dallas Wings | 53c | 238.26$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 227.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Dallas Wings | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Phoenix Mercury | 26c | 128.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Dallas Wings | 54c | 103.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Dallas Wings | 52c | 87.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 65.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 61.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Dallas Wings | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Phoenix Mercury | 19c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Wings | 76c | 55.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…b41fbacked Dallas Wings | 55c | 47.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Dallas Wings | 54c | 43.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 41.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 31.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 29.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Dallas Wings | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x123e…eed4backed Dallas Wings | 57c | 26.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 21.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas WingsDallas Wings won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5)Dallas Wings won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5)Dallas Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.