TailMyPicks

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Fifa International · resolved market

Paraguay vs. France: Team to Take First Corner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Franceof Paraguay, France
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,347
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,347 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7de3…d59bbacked Paraguay70c399.99$280 inLost-$279.991,20650.2%606 W · 600 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f8…ae2ebacked France32c350.01$111 inWon+$238.5351859.8%310 W · 208 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8740…70f4backed Paraguay27c274.73$75 inLost-$752634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x789f…3e7dbacked France72c215.02$155 inWon+$60.2114745.6%67 W · 80 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb3…211bbacked France29c214.79$63 inWon+$151.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44bc…ddb3backed France74c182.48$135 inWon+$47.15977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Paraguay50c102.33$51 inLost-$50.822,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked France73c90.48$66 inWon+$24.4333555.5%186 W · 149 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02bb…d137backed Paraguay26c76.92$20 inLost-$201844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+51.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed Paraguay23c69.99$16 inLost-$16.123741.8%99 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb0…ae93backed France77c56.42$43 inWon+$12.983633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+74.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Paraguay70c43.05$30 inLost-$30.152,79656.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L-9.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked Paraguay70c40$28 inLost-$2845254.6%247 W · 205 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0e…1b7bbacked France77c39.18$30 inWon+$9.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56b…0f63backed France78c38.46$30 inWon+$8.461330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked France74c28.47$21 inWon+$7.411,47544.9%663 W · 812 L-4.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1241…081bbacked France77c20.14$16 inWon+$4.632860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6134…c8ccbacked France75c20$15 inWon+$527254.4%148 W · 124 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.