TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,836

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes36c25,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,999.9811445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd67…ef90backed No65c8,446$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No65c6,098$3,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.079831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No66c5,628$3,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.2775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes33c5,529$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.4433244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked No78c5,520$4,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.91668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No63c4,762$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.910553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e2…b0a7backed No67c4,215$2,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+81%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No66c3,333$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.2214447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No65c3,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.9911644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No64c2,840$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.3269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No40c2,770$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.972,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No6c2,554$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.541,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No70c1,700$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5105444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No43c1,684$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.821,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Yes35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5253221.9%7 W · 25 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-50.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No64c1,500$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.6211056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes36c1,500$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.2640744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes34c1,489$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.733,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No65c1,264$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.43721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d83…27afbacked No65c1,200$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes38c1,200$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45624050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No63c1,185$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.4530054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No65c1,141$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.351163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked No64c1,139$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.11566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked No36c1,093$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.974856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes30c1,084$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No9c860.27$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.8553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes69c853.67$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.2423842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc4…701abacked Yes35c758.99$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes35c735.13$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.5544749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2169746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes12c587.03$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5351136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Yes22c586.82$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.511533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1705554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed Yes31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1706053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf4b…c971backed Yes35c440$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f5…91febacked Yes37c421.62$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3335…5c3fbacked Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14431145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14056547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes22c374.97$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1414934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Yes37c348.57$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.972920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed No65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.693574.3%26 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes34c302.13$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.722326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10819446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed No66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes52c259.73$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.151735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0178…3f7abacked No38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1555246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes30c231$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.38420.2%17 W · 67 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes34c220.59$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes34c202.68$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9815064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes35c201.37$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.488143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7216045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes70c197$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205149%25 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked No69c163.13$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02d…16cabacked Yes39c153.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed No69c147.87$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.84757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf675…dfbfbacked Yes12c144.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aa3…f3c8backed Yes21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No60c134.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5938151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed No64c128.52$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2718746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes47c114.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9916542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Yes31c107.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.422218.2%4 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-69%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd40b…429abacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011952.1%62 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed No76c98.2$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.573056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes35c97$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9534342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7bf…7758backed No65c83.08$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.081283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+31.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca66…2305backed Yes37c80.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No68c79.9$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.523450%17 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+815.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes78c79.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.191136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82cb…6a34backed No65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked No65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.928169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes25c76.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f77…724bbacked Yes21c76.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcecc…affebacked No66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7521041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a09…76e9backed No67c74.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.32850%14 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Yes36c70.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.214445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed No27c66.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.027230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed No77c66.47$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.293644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked No66c64.61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.974463.6%28 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed No64c62.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.534858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb15…5fefbacked No71c60.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.432259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf01e…aed4backed No64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9371…3aecbacked Yes28c59.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7180%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed No64c54.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.87759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked Yes20c51.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.194119.5%8 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe92e…535dbacked Yes40c50.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.851145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8321450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1814539.3%57 W · 88 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6725855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes35c48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810235.3%36 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9193…5dbdbacked No65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.