Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3378faf3766485360c76cdd999c7fb488b73b52175d795990e5e618032bd3dcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 36c | 25,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,999.98 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd67…ef90backed No | 65c | 8,446$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,946.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed No | 65c | 6,098$3,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.07 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 66c | 5,628$3,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.27 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 33c | 5,529$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.44 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 78c | 5,520$4,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed No | 63c | 4,762$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.9 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed No | 67c | 4,215$2,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 66c | 3,333$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.22 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 65c | 3,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.99 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 64c | 2,840$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.32 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 40c | 2,770$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 6c | 2,554$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,394.54 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 70c | 1,700$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 43c | 1,684$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.82 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 64c | 1,500$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.62 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 36c | 1,500$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.26 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 1,489$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.73 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed No | 65c | 1,264$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.4 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d83…27afbacked No | 65c | 1,200$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 63c | 1,185$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.45 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 65c | 1,141$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 64c | 1,139$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked No | 36c | 1,093$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.97 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes | 30c | 1,084$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 9c | 860.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.85 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 69c | 853.67$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.24 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…701abacked Yes | 35c | 758.99$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 35c | 735.13$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.55 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 587.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Yes | 22c | 586.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…c971backed Yes | 35c | 440$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f5…91febacked Yes | 37c | 421.62$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…5c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 22c | 374.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 37c | 348.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.97 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes | 34c | 302.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…fb95backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 52c | 259.73$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 30c | 231$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 34c | 220.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 34c | 202.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 35c | 201.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 70c | 197$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 69c | 163.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed No | 69c | 147.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf675…dfbfbacked Yes | 12c | 144.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…f3c8backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 60c | 134.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 64c | 128.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 47c | 114.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Yes | 31c | 107.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 76c | 98.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 35c | 97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bf…7758backed No | 65c | 83.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca66…2305backed Yes | 37c | 80.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 68c | 79.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 78c | 79.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82cb…6a34backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 25c | 76.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…724bbacked Yes | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcecc…affebacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed No | 67c | 74.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 36c | 70.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 27c | 66.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed No | 77c | 66.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked No | 66c | 64.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 64c | 62.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…5fefbacked No | 71c | 60.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Yes | 28c | 59.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed No | 64c | 54.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Yes | 40c | 50.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…5dbdbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.