Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77cb941fd6a3c25bf841d6248a6adce62914148dfbd226a2eefda0f17fc121c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed No | 0c | 11,160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…6660backed No | 0c | 9,902$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 41c | 7,333$3,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,326.47 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 6,701$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…a303backed Yes | 77c | 3,573$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 1,349$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 55c | 1,285$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.93 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 33c | 1,126$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.83 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7652…c6c5backed Yes | 75c | 1,044$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 999.98$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.99 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 48c | 817.11$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.56 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 64c | 800$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.18 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…2e68backed Yes | 55c | 724.08$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 52c | 421.61$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.56 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 30c | 370$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…6022backed No | 71c | 356.34$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 43c | 315.65$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.31 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 48c | 280.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 11c | 270.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…ed46backed No | 71c | 263.38$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…70d9backed No | 71c | 257.75$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 73c | 255$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed No | 42c | 192.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked No | 23c | 152.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 54c | 138.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…ac49backed Yes | 15c | 131.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 76c | 131.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…e1a3backed Yes | 76c | 131.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 54c | 118.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…403abacked No | 71c | 118.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…8ba4backed No | 71c | 109.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed No | 26c | 106.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44e…6e9ebacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +287.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 72c | 101.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Yes | 56c | 99.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 60c | 98.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked Yes | 30c | 90.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 17c | 88.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked No | 17c | 85.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 45c | 75.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…bb08backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 77c | 67.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…1eccbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 29c | 58.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked No | 23c | 56.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Yes | 21c | 55.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +379.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 26c | 52.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 52c | 51.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 30c | 42.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…7a1cbacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 46c | 36.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…ea19backed Yes | 58c | 33.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…39fdbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…57acbacked Yes | 64c | 27.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed No | 58c | 20.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…3efdbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No | 59c | 18.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-18?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.