Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33c6a04d5ad3afc1d42929ac3d9c4dbd8c7de4a800cfc9bd0184e8a448134732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 47c | 14,350$6,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,605.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 14,317$7,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,586.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed No | 53c | 466$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Yes | 52c | 413.24$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.36 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed No | 54c | 331.57$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.56 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 52c | 216$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Yes | 48c | 197.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Yes | 53c | 189.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes | 42c | 160$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 49c | 140.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +80%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 23c | 103$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…10aebacked No | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 79c | 60.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Yes | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 55c | 45.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 46c | 44.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 51c | 37.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Yes | 47c | 35.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…de29backed No | 55c | 33.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…9e49backed No | 46c | 26.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Yes | 50c | 20.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.