Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bfa301fc96a27c915bc99faaa6278877cb9ab0465825f91c30b5c775c9a223e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 21,731$4,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,906.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 2,785$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.28 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Over | 80c | 2,499$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 60c | 1,400$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.8 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 1,328$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Under | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Over | 58c | 800$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 69c | 724.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 20c | 688.71$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 34c | 553.03$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.03 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 40c | 520$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.41 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 18c | 386.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 19c | 307.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 20c | 307.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 74c | 268.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 40c | 258.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…dc4cbacked Over | 71c | 226.76$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Over | 68c | 222$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 76c | 220.89$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 80c | 212.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 19c | 200.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 24c | 179.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 61c | 145.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 140.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 73c | 125.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 19c | 116.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 41c | 115.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…37cfbacked Over | 66c | 106$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…47eabacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 19c | 80.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 25c | 75.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44d8…111ebacked Over | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 24c | 69.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…4cf3backed Under | 19c | 68.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Over | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…9d1ebacked Under | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…b53cbacked Over | 57c | 50.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…8160backed Over | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 44.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 44.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 47c | 42.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +76%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Over | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Under | 73c | 27.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…74c7backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 60c | 22.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.