Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8f2092ae8b1975d5a28ec04490db133c31ef1c7a47a733ae034bbbc5cf18b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 21,871$5,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,734.76 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 14,269$10,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,912.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Under | 64c | 8,850$5,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,230.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.84 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 2,932$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.8 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 58c | 2,579$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.62 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 58c | 2,431$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 58c | 1,683$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.06 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 60c | 1,683$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.63 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…26c6backed Over | 28c | 1,260$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 56c | 1,045$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.82 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Under | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 56c | 882.91$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.99 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 876.73$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.92 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 29c | 862$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 57c | 750$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.5 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d37…5b73backed Under | 70c | 642.86$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 59c | 500$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 57c | 498$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 18c | 449.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 33c | 363.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Over | 43c | 349.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 42c | 344$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.92 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…2c56backed Over | 40c | 293.38$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 41c | 239.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…1bd5backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 234$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 58c | 204.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 29c | 172.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 42c | 153.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Over | 43c | 131.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 44c | 113.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 42c | 113$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 41c | 105.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 102.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 41c | 82.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 59c | 77.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 38c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Over | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 35c | 68.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d92…2e20backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 57c | 49.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Under | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 39c | 31.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 66c | 30.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 64c | 28.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 42c | 26.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 43c | 25.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…a874backed Under | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 66c | 19.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.