TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,451 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c11,982$5,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,625.73,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x127f…8a29backed Over52c6,999$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,639.643520%7 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Over61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.995152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c8…6632backed Under72c3,615$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.37580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under37c3,053$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.461,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over63c2,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under51c1,655$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.571,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa128…8d4bbacked Over63c1,577$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over33c1,109$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.652,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over64c998.02$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.7344749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Over31c900.52$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.079532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Over62c808.67$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.75068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c727.2$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.1453645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over53c700$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over42c650$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27313142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over56c640.46$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.7211630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0666…d31abacked Over79c635.06$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under37c605.98$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.7756547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over52c601$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.5212952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8535…2024backed Over55c600$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under37c568.58$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.2120545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Under59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.472556%14 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3058251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a5…c3f1backed Over62c500$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under39c465.44$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9248658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd94…c56cbacked Over57c444.96$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.471566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under38c405.08$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.833340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over58c400$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2322458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25631145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd260…b480backed Over53c399.99$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-60.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde4b…ea19backed Over61c391$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.65683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Over63c350$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.58143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over50c318.94$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1598056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c79…1bd5backed Over63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf057…d05ebacked Over53c301.89$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+127.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over65c300.34$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.224658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under35c299.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.9915453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over50c298.54$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.276549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Under39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.412751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf62a…aecfbacked Over41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over41c226.88$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5110552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Under59c210$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.579846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Over52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbfe…5247backed Over60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13010855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb0…b622backed Over51c190.29$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005149%25 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc126…26c6backed Over34c159.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under38c157.89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8937344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed Over62c154.87$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.02520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under46c151.64$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.541,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under39c148.21$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.411855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over55c146.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4625352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under37c121.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.622829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3bbf…f4e6backed Under43c120$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.43565.7%23 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under55c112$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.421041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over42c107.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3239558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under36c103.41$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.635856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x48b5…10aebacked Under39c102.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xea51…83a0backed Over50c100.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644452.3%23 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bcf…402abacked Over16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169123.1%21 W · 70 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439243.5%40 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…e374backed Over60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Over50c93.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.81384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b2d…379dbacked Over35c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.55930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under38c86.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5218746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under55c85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.62948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Over64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.27439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44d8…111ebacked Over63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under53c72.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over56c71.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x002f…6a4ebacked Under42c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over36c69.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516750.9%85 W · 82 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ad…8b71backed Over65c69.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Over63c63.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-58.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over54c61.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2638151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over36c56.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2211955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.55354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3234…b53cbacked Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aea…eff2backed Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0068…1b85backed Over52c41.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dda…de29backed Over52c40.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65d4…d3babacked Over49c40.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over51c39.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012951.2%66 W · 63 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254269%29 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1783…7180backed Over54c37.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under50c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.557550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Under50c34.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.212748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe4b…881fbacked Over65c34.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc888…f2cebacked Under47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ed…79e1backed Over63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Over48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154161%25 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37fa…1136backed Over62c30.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.071752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210864.8%70 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.