Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342eb7655211240ca12e0e0dfd20ffc3ec267cd3a798fe7d43c171274cd6e5a5

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: AS Romaof AS Roma, VfB Stuttgart
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,147 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart	78c	27,474$21,553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,552.57	3,726	47%1,750 W · 1,976 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked AS Roma	22c	10,000$2,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,799.98	82	45.1%37 W · 45 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed AS Roma	20c	4,619$913 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,706.61	848	50.8%431 W · 417 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked AS Roma	22c	3,000$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,340	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed AS Roma	22c	3,000$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,340	71	43.7%31 W · 40 L	-5.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked VfB Stuttgart	80c	2,388$1,903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,902.92	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked AS Roma	20c	900.08$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720.06	219	25.6%56 W · 163 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked AS Roma	22c	799.98$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$623.98	91	48.4%44 W · 47 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed VfB Stuttgart	78c	549$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.22	70	40%28 W · 42 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked AS Roma	17c	541$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.03	80	23.8%19 W · 61 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed AS Roma	22c	420$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.6	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked AS Roma	22c	420$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.6	129	48.8%63 W · 66 L	-6.5wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed AS Roma	22c	420$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.6	84	44%37 W · 47 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed AS Roma	24c	416.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.67	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked AS Roma	22c	400$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312	246	55.7%137 W · 109 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked VfB Stuttgart	77c	364.34$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.38	919	50.9%468 W · 451 L	+15.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed AS Roma	22c	330$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.4	90	37.8%34 W · 56 L	-12.2wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed AS Roma	22c	330$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.4	80	46.3%37 W · 43 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked AS Roma	22c	300$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked AS Roma	22c	299.99$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.99	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-9.6wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed AS Roma	22c	299.9$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.43	105	54.3%57 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed VfB Stuttgart	78c	287.78$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.47	86	60.5%52 W · 34 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked AS Roma	22c	199.23$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.63	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked AS Roma	25c	196.7$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.38	139	20.1%28 W · 111 L	-7.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed AS Roma	22c	190$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.2	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed AS Roma	22c	180$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.4	80	56.3%45 W · 35 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed AS Roma	22c	170$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.6	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked AS Roma	22c	170$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.6	75	44%33 W · 42 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed AS Roma	22c	170$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.6	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked AS Roma	22c	170$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.6	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed AS Roma	22c	170$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.6	72	44.4%32 W · 40 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed AS Roma	22c	170$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.6	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked AS Roma	22c	169.99$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.59	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed AS Roma	22c	160$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.8	85	51.8%44 W · 41 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed VfB Stuttgart	78c	151.4$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.09	90	56.7%51 W · 39 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed AS Roma	22c	150$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117	109	53.2%58 W · 51 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed AS Roma	22c	150$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117	75	44%33 W · 42 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed AS Roma	22c	150$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117	75	40%30 W · 45 L	-7.8wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed AS Roma	22c	120$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked AS Roma	22c	120$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked AS Roma	22c	120$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	77	54.5%42 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked AS Roma	22c	120$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked AS Roma	22c	120$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	80	57.5%46 W · 34 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed AS Roma	22c	120$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	87	55.2%48 W · 39 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked AS Roma	22c	119.98$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.59	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked AS Roma	22c	100$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked AS Roma	22c	100$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked AS Roma	23c	100$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.5	88	47.7%42 W · 46 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked AS Roma	22c	100$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f65…cdd3backed AS Roma	22c	100$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked AS Roma	22c	80$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	78	48.7%38 W · 40 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked AS Roma	22c	80$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc716…f0d7backed VfB Stuttgart	77c	75$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.75	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed AS Roma	22c	70$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.6	94	50%47 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed VfB Stuttgart	78c	69$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.55	116	43.1%50 W · 66 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed VfB Stuttgart	79c	69$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.51	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked AS Roma	22c	68.16$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.16	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ac…f3babacked AS Roma	27c	67.99$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.84	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	79	49.4%39 W · 40 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	76	51.3%39 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	108	52.8%57 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	78	53.8%42 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed AS Roma	22c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.8	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c5e…8919backed AS Roma	25c	56$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.4wins	+0.39per pick	44cpaid	+120.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x26de…0f76backed AS Roma	25c	50.88$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.16	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.76per pick	24cpaid	+317.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed VfB Stuttgart	78c	25.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.14	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ee0…3bd5backed VfB Stuttgart	78c	20$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	76cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa895…5548backed VfB Stuttgart	78c	18.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-2.0wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb93b…52f5backed VfB Stuttgart	77c	17.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c0a…0d4cbacked VfB Stuttgart	77c	17.66$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c9a…8160backed VfB Stuttgart	77c	16.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-2.1wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed VfB Stuttgart	78c	15.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb8…d611backed VfB Stuttgart	77c	13.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.77per pick	77cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x103d…f7eabacked VfB Stuttgart	77c	13.64$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.36per pick	56cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8df…0c62backed VfB Stuttgart	77c	13.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.5wins	-0.77per pick	77cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b5a…f431backed VfB Stuttgart	77c	13.17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.77per pick	77cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Under won
AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Under won
AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event