Europa Conference League · resolved market
AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e36779ce58116f1bc83bd1bcb93a25e843733c4a98c4b9eb08c0e86166188c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 39c | 5,532$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.24 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 5,225$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.19 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 77c | 2,366$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 78c | 1,539$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.58 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 26c | 1,493$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.89 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 70c | 1,400$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 68c | 1,176$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 803.15$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.36 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 798.7$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.7 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 23c | 674.75$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.19 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 55c | 660.05$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.02 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 659.12$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 79c | 656.39$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 23c | 611.65$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 63c | 500$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.11 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…395abacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 78c | 384$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 12c | 329.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 77c | 272.73$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 76c | 259$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Over | 78c | 256.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 4c | 254.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.26 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 215.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -11.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -9.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…342dbacked Over | 74c | 185.53$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Over | 49c | 164.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 76c | 146$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 24c | 139$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…bc26backed Over | 78c | 128.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 78c | 128.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc796…24a1backed Under | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 77c | 124.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 63c | 112$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…b19cbacked Over | 77c | 95.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 33c | 89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 69c | 80.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…4c28backed Under | 26c | 72.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…e639backed Over | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Under | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 58c | 69.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 53c | 68.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 24c | 64.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 69c | 52.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Under | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Under | 57c | 40.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0acd…db47backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c5…dd3bbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…03acbacked Over | 77c | 33.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Over | 36c | 32.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 68c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c6…1247backed Over | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 77c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…b628backed Over | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5this page
- AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.