Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x347edc70ba7ebaf1ff8678bddceecbcba1e1a45ab962b8f062223350b4cc5dee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 39c | 1,137$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.05 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 57c | 1,009$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.83 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 846.01$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.01 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 39c | 675.68$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.74 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 40c | 386.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 62c | 342$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 40c | 321.55$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 282.45$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 59c | 279.22$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.58 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 255.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 48c | 244.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.31 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 228.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 190$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 182.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 64c | 178.85$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 171.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 171.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 43c | 169.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 116.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 112$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 104.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 99.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 94.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 90.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 84.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 44c | 75.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 60c | 74.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 52c | 73.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 49c | 70.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 55c | 69.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 65.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 63.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 61.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 44c | 61.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 41c | 57.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 59c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 51.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 48.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 46.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 42.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 60c | 41.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 57c | 38.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 61c | 37.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 35.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 29.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 28.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 49c | 28.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 64c | 27.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked Yes | 55c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 69c | 22.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 22.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 56c | 22.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 63c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.