World Politics · resolved market
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34b58559f6de4f93693fcad61412a1a7495b347a636b0d4ca0bbe208b7098dc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $500,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $539,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 33c | 49,690$16,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,294.39 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 18c | 18,366$3,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,303.4 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…4e60backed Yes | 6c | 17,781$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…eb1fbacked Yes | 3c | 17,337$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…c983backed Yes | 0c | 13,123$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…6a54backed Yes | 5c | 12,306$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 20c | 10,474$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,114.33 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9096…8f86backed Yes | 5c | 8,941$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 8c | 7,968$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.5 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,027$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d87…c2e9backed Yes | 3c | 6,768$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 12c | 6,286$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.49 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 38c | 6,018$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.01 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 16c | 5,920$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.09 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…3f00backed Yes | 4c | 5,262$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 8c | 5,199$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 14c | 4,260$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 67c | 4,220$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.48 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 38c | 3,965$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.56 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…6c49backed Yes | 13c | 3,905$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,900$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.57 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 3c | 3,824$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…77e6backed No | 46c | 3,708$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.08 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc95…aab8backed Yes | 17c | 3,495$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Yes | 3c | 3,344$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 22c | 3,304$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.2 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…d83cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,943$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…6c94backed Yes | 19c | 2,920$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…3a01backed Yes | 4c | 2,605$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 79c | 2,403$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…2720backed Yes | 19c | 2,400$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 3c | 2,364$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 46c | 2,261$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.85 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 52c | 2,166$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.69 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…701fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,126$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,986$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 36c | 1,909$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.24 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…ca8dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,900$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…b116backed Yes | 4c | 1,794$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 1,764$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.37 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 36c | 1,722$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.17 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f8…5a3cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,699$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…96cbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked No | 80c | 1,659$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.16 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4d…cfa3backed Yes | 16c | 1,563$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc125…5fccbacked Yes | 15c | 1,530$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…0bdabacked No | 57c | 1,464$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,433$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.22 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 12c | 1,381$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb0…7b25backed Yes | 15c | 1,340$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes | 9c | 1,249$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 48c | 1,200$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067c…6c9abacked Yes | 4c | 1,195$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…73ddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,182$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…4389backed Yes | 17c | 1,178$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,163$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…6987backed Yes | 2c | 1,062$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd21f…9b25backed Yes | 13c | 949.08$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed Yes | 10c | 900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 42c | 900$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 7c | 853.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 21c | 846.68$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 16c | 840$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 26c | 793.46$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc73…4812backed Yes | 14c | 701.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…9836backed Yes | 20c | 695.32$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 15c | 679.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…c24bbacked Yes | 22c | 672$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…a166backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…5852backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 656.02$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.94 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 17c | 637.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…27cfbacked Yes | 3c | 627$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4d8cbacked Yes | 16c | 611.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…b152backed Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…523bbacked Yes | 19c | 562$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…c588backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…b9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 536.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…907ebacked Yes | 19c | 519.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…a19bbacked Yes | 15c | 493.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…9917backed Yes | 16c | 472.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3acd…2e82backed Yes | 3c | 464.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…9aeebacked Yes | 4c | 453$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…4254backed No | 80c | 439.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…50babacked No | 66c | 415.22$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 31c | 400$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff38…738dbacked Yes | 18c | 396.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…ababbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 62c | 372.28$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.19 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…bee6backed Yes | 3c | 362$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d5…96a4backed Yes | 3c | 315$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3baf…8a7fbacked Yes | 3c | 312$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…e266backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.