Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f41592731be7371420198aea06088768ebb49dcbe6c51f77e5df9369b27462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 25c | 1,044$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.78 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 843.47$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 541.77$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 506.89$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 349.15$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 69c | 292.5$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 9c | 290.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 7c | 284.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 192$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 161.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 161.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 146$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 131.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 117.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 109.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 22c | 108.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 105.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 36c | 100.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 85.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 23c | 80.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 46c | 66.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked No | 65c | 59.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 57.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 56.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 28c | 55.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 65c | 54.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 25c | 53.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 76c | 50.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 48.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 30c | 46.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 44.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 60c | 42.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 40.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 36c | 40.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 36c | 38.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 37.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 36c | 37.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 69c | 36.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 35.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 33.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 46c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 31.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 23.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 21.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 20.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 55c | 20.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.