Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80cdf94c64ad7c70091b307b0f216d986f7d5b54f90435776fabec009add5537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 0c | 4,913$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 300$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.17 | 912 | 28.9%264 W · 648 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 253.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 23c | 251.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.32 | 398 | 30.4%121 W · 277 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed Yes | 75c | 249.72$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 66c | 204.01$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 250 | 50.8%127 W · 123 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 192$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 183.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 177.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 159.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 156.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 17c | 153.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 30c | 131.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 483 | 39.5%191 W · 292 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 20c | 124.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 252 | 57.9%146 W · 106 L | +21.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 21c | 123.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 122.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 3,046 | 33.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L | +12.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 18c | 118$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 19c | 111.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 480 | 39.8%191 W · 289 L | +31.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 25c | 95.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 262 | 41.2%108 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 78c | 94.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 20c | 85.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 23c | 74.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 20c | 72.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 513 | 74.1%380 W · 133 L | +34.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 24c | 63.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 25c | 62.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 388 | 55.7%216 W · 172 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 21c | 59.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 56.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 77c | 51.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 51.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 566 | 54.4%308 W · 258 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 23c | 48.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 44.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 41.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 39.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 38.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 36.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 1,124 | 55.4%623 W · 501 L | -29.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 32c | 34.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 403 | 45.9%185 W · 218 L | +29.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…3bd7backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 66c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 26.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 63c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 75c | 24.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 79c | 21.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…caebbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 17.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 16.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 79c | 14.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.