Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f700f148c5903046187a2fc18e6a10eef51240e8d13e87c9fed9f0666fc966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 60c | 400.27$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.93 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 349.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 69c | 286.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.8 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 278.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 268.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 59c | 243.12$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 78c | 234.91$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 215.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 74c | 213.4$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 31c | 211.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 204.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 51c | 150.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 149.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 137.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 133.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 119.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 116.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 112.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 31c | 89.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 86.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 75c | 78.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 76.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 76.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 59c | 72.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 70c | 71.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 29c | 68.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…14c2backed Yes | 79c | 68.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…dc4ebacked Yes | 74c | 59.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 54.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 47c | 53.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 47.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…143dbacked Yes | 70c | 47.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f2…ac5dbacked Yes | 49c | 46.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 44.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 43.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 53c | 40.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 39.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 38.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 38.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 45c | 37.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 54c | 36.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 46c | 35.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 35.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 34.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 35c | 33.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 68c | 33.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 51c | 33.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 53c | 28.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 54c | 28.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 78c | 25.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 52c | 23.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 46c | 22.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.