Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34fd95adc2154115cc90a1c47c1d7c40a6e59e715590f2eb59373e451f6ac618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 58c | 763.31$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.59 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…bc05backed Yes | 42c | 763.31$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 3c | 564.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 34c | 311.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 283$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 27c | 229.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 63c | 169.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 38c | 154.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…5f47backed Yes | 37c | 135.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 62c | 123.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 115$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 102.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 37c | 101.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 81.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 80.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…06a0backed Yes | 39c | 73.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 37c | 54.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c60…59b8backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 32c | 52.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 34c | 42.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 33c | 42.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 357 | 34.5%123 W · 234 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Yes | 34c | 30.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…8fe4backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Croatia finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.