World Politics · resolved market
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 30-34 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3500031ba026bf318b1a4b5737db205528cc6afdd90bd16e79d7e511a4a23222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7288…42f1backed Yes | 9c | 2,605$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed No | 78c | 1,636$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…d48dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,400$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.52 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 19c | 1,246$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…cf82backed Yes | 19c | 1,219$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 19c | 1,191$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 9c | 864.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 22c | 823$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…ea16backed Yes | 15c | 818.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 22c | 813$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc013…f52ebacked Yes | 15c | 741.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…1bd3backed Yes | 14c | 702.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 20c | 541.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…1eb5backed Yes | 16c | 532.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d2…d007backed Yes | 4c | 528.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e23…af5dbacked Yes | 10c | 493.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ed…b5debacked Yes | 21c | 469.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…3ab1backed Yes | 23c | 456.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 3c | 442.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…90e0backed Yes | 13c | 378.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…d825backed Yes | 15c | 330.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4617…0c10backed Yes | 7c | 300.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 77c | 281$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…48aebacked Yes | 12c | 279.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd997…c3febacked Yes | 19c | 275.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a0…5c7abacked Yes | 16c | 226.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…950dbacked Yes | 16c | 183.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2f…8160backed Yes | 17c | 161.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae6…8a9fbacked Yes | 12c | 160.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6298backed Yes | 20c | 158.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…e937backed Yes | 24c | 154.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…fd5dbacked Yes | 17c | 145.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…5300backed Yes | 16c | 126.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb7…c021backed Yes | 8c | 125.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…6694backed Yes | 17c | 117.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e0…6ca2backed Yes | 10c | 104.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…4bf1backed Yes | 25c | 101.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…d4e1backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 34c | 94.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd29…938cbacked Yes | 17c | 90.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…ba39backed Yes | 12c | 89.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…b28cbacked Yes | 17c | 88.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 87.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a8…1f53backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed No | 79c | 74.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…3b34backed Yes | 21c | 72.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 72.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…0cbbbacked Yes | 16c | 63.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 75c | 55.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…4086backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 78c | 41.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked Yes | 39c | 41.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 74c | 28.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 30-34 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 35-39 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 40-44 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 45+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.