World Politics · resolved market
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9113ab6c2eb9de3bcfa62818f2ffbca39c5e269f5da32f32e236878e3943b37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 78c | 3,980$3,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.87 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…42f1backed No | 21c | 2,124$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a99…053abacked No | 19c | 1,447$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 77c | 1,332$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.56 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 61c | 1,306$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…1bd3backed No | 18c | 1,125$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 833.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 6c | 779.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc013…b1e0backed Yes | 75c | 740.18$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 17c | 716.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 39c | 660$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 650.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed Yes | 39c | 646$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…776fbacked No | 19c | 573.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf264…6d1abacked Yes | 75c | 398.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…444bbacked Yes | 67c | 372.33$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 12c | 355.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…44fdbacked No | 16c | 354.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…06b8backed No | 15c | 289.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 17c | 282$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 79c | 249.74$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…3dc1backed Yes | 47c | 212.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…da23backed No | 24c | 205.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 71c | 187.01$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…ad81backed No | 9c | 187$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf9…20e2backed No | 24c | 161.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 22c | 159.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 68c | 155.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…9594backed No | 21c | 153.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…f234backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 29c | 127.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f62…8c2bbacked No | 18c | 125.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…5092backed No | 18c | 122.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…ba39backed No | 17c | 114.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…f206backed No | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 108.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…0cafbacked No | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 18c | 93.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 87.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…d6fabacked Yes | 79c | 82.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…823fbacked No | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…3510backed No | 14c | 76.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…7f5cbacked Yes | 75c | 72.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 41 | 75.6%31 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 51c | 69.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 19c | 65.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 45c | 61.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 77c | 58.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 60c | 50.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked Yes | 55c | 41.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Yes | 73c | 36.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…aed2backed Yes | 62c | 21.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…855bbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +243%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…33eabacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 71c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 30-34 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 35-39 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 40-44 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 45+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.