TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-22.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,170 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks45c569.14$256 inLost-$255.899,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Bucks21c221.59$46 inLost-$45.942,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Pistons55c217.12$119 inWon+$97.716653.6%89 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Pistons77c210$162 inWon+$48.327357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Pistons57c166.14$94 inWon+$71.661,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Bucks54c135.54$73 inLost-$72.9259140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Pistons55c121.85$67 inWon+$54.8340750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad9…caefbacked Pistons55c121.84$67 inWon+$54.833246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc75…5431backed Pistons55c121.84$67 inWon+$54.833348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…58c9backed Pistons55c121.84$67 inWon+$54.833647.2%17 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…7b24backed Bucks20c95.22$19 inLost-$19.3310045%45 W · 55 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed Bucks55c84.92$47 inLost-$46.710945.9%50 W · 59 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons59c81.95$48 inWon+$33.61,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Bucks41c79.05$32 inLost-$32.4149247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Pistons79c75.14$59 inWon+$15.8552461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Pistons72c60$43 inWon+$16.9537753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pistons51c54.71$28 inWon+$26.641,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks53c36.85$19 inLost-$19.431,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd85a…1d03backed Bucks42c34.36$14 inLost-$14.487570.7%53 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x941e…c622backed Bucks61c32.02$20 inLost-$19.537960.8%48 W · 31 L+9.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+42.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Bucks42c27.99$12 inLost-$11.7631151.1%159 W · 152 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Bucks43c24.24$11 inLost-$10.5310046%46 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b2…2e80backed Pistons56c21.23$12 inWon+$9.3415855.7%88 W · 70 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Pistons53c20$11 inWon+$9.426957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.