Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x352d1b3732b15234e8fcea4b529b388c780c625bed51c4d699d0b440e35bf089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 29c | 1,008$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.2 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 56c | 712.05$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.83 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 629.22$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 25c | 410.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.87 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 3c | 329.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.78 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 19c | 303.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.77 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 295.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 276$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 233.3$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 189.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 31c | 171.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 25c | 145.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 139.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 32c | 132$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 57c | 116.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 114.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 67c | 114.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 108.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 31c | 103.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…730cbacked No | 14c | 100.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 23c | 98.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 96.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 90.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 25c | 84.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 81.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 75c | 70.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 25c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 65.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd247…792abacked Yes | 74c | 64.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 67c | 62.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 59.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 30c | 59.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 67c | 59.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 29c | 59.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…4e58backed No | 31c | 57.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 56.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 37c | 56.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 35c | 51.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 35c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 46.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 29c | 46.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 53c | 44.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 67c | 42.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 36.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 74c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 48c | 32.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…1446backed Yes | 48c | 31.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 66c | 31.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 30.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 75c | 28.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 68c | 28.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 54c | 26.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 25.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 63c | 23.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 55c | 20.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 64c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 65c | 19.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 76c | 18.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…32d0backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.9wins | -0.35per pick | 71cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.