Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef0dac41b0c89c25c89b135e23305c046ebf17a28b81910091485d2d8c3442c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 768.67$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.21 | 1,613 | 23.9%385 W · 1,228 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 508.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.17 | 699 | 46.1%322 W · 377 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 48c | 437.42$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.66 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 52c | 333.66$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 605 | 33.4%202 W · 403 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 71c | 238.18$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 899 | 29%261 W · 638 L | -22.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 228.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 228$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 214$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 46c | 199.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 398 | 30.4%121 W · 277 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 185.82$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 39c | 185$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 175.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 159.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1,146 | 30.9%354 W · 792 L | -37.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 21c | 159.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 388 | 42.5%165 W · 223 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 9c | 155.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 480 | 39.8%191 W · 289 L | +31.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 154.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 146.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 143.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 17c | 143.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.69 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | +25.3wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 140.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 118.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 109.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 50c | 107.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 1,183 | 54.9%650 W · 533 L | +50.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 101.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 49c | 99.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 25c | 96.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 91.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 90.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 20c | 78.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 34c | 68.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…81babacked Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 63.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 63.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…125dbacked No | 79c | 63.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 48c | 62.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 62.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 61c | 59.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 63c | 57.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 56.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 46c | 51.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 370 | 34.6%128 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 53c | 50.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 49.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…3103backed Yes | 55c | 47.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 65c | 44.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 43.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 845 | 35.9%303 W · 542 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 72c | 42.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 245 | 68.2%167 W · 78 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 41.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2,193 | 57%1,249 W · 944 L | +68.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…3730backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 63c | 39.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…e298backed No | 64c | 36.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 34.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 831 | 42.6%354 W · 477 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 78c | 33.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 163 | 63.2%103 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 60c | 33.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 49c | 30.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 44c | 27.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 559 | 51.3%287 W · 272 L | +54.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 25.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 66c | 23.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 939 | 2.4%23 W · 916 L | -386.8wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 21.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4012backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…3937backed No | 55c | 18.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…4a59backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 16.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 14.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.