Mls · resolved market
Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x354283104eda176576c3ac804581d793af70c71f7cd3d2e5004469a00367cda8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 57c | 9,079$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,879.04 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 48c | 3,333$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 3,106$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.44 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 21c | 1,110$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 863.56$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.64 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 79c | 800$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 649.5$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.28 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 57c | 613.2$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.86 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 12c | 540.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 539.2$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 384.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…f419backed Over | 51c | 366.67$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Under | 48c | 333$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 223.52$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 222.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 211.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 21c | 209.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 49c | 203$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 51c | 196.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 79c | 158$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 53c | 146.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 141.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 58c | 120.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 52c | 114.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 48c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 51c | 94.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 48c | 76.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 54c | 73.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 53c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Over | 38c | 68.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 50c | 57.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Under | 48c | 50.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 40.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 79c | 36.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 53c | 35.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 63cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 49c | 34.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 53c | 32.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 53c | 25.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5this page
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-2.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.