Mls · resolved market
Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78acec4cb5fb9b3fbb31bcbc270ebd6132f0e5b50c537dd1ff1ab94c8feb7396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 39c | 4,124$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.39 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 58c | 2,474$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.53 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 50c | 1,608$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.51 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 61c | 915.92$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.92 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 77c | 859.27$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.38 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 663.2$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.68 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 625.68$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.76 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 25c | 600.79$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.42 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 57c | 564.43$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.43 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 35c | 499.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 66c | 454.58$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.1 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 39c | 441.79$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.79 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 399.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 78c | 339.26$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.62 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 64c | 256.63$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb1…da33backed Under | 66c | 233.33$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Over | 44c | 229.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 209.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 78c | 207.85$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.45 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 77c | 185.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Over | 33c | 158.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 48c | 119.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 51c | 118.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 48c | 114.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 48c | 105.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 78c | 105$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 46c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 98.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Under | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 78c | 58.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 63cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 78c | 50.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…61a6backed Over | 45c | 43.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 78c | 41.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 32c | 40.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 65c | 38.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 56c | 38.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Over | 68c | 31.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 46c | 28.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -12.3wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 78c | 27.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 67c | 22.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 80c | 14.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5this page
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-2.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.