Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x355a55b7908223ae01d24c45dea43ceb8b4e6a33f867f54858d3e434925d566e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Medvedev, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Medvedev | 34c | 1,051$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.3 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7424…ce06backed Medvedev | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sinner | 57c | 987.18$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.49 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Sinner | 63c | 941.03$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.85 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Medvedev | 39c | 761.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…316cbacked Sinner | 62c | 642.68$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sinner | 69c | 482.9$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Sinner | 76c | 479.66$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Sinner | 71c | 457.87$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Medvedev | 38c | 440.12$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.18 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Medvedev | 37c | 416.54$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…cbaabacked Sinner | 58c | 347.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sinner | 62c | 329.93$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Medvedev | 52c | 300.95$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Medvedev | 34c | 295.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Sinner | 79c | 252.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Medvedev | 46c | 246.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Medvedev | 42c | 236.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…f68ebacked Medvedev | 43c | 232.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -56%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Medvedev | 44c | 201.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Medvedev | 47c | 163.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Medvedev | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc834…685fbacked Sinner | 68c | 130.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Medvedev | 31c | 129.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sinner | 70c | 109.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Sinner | 63c | 99.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Medvedev | 31c | 97.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sinner | 59c | 90.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Medvedev | 34c | 87.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…f35abacked Medvedev | 44c | 78.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…3b43backed Sinner | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 175 | 49.7%87 W · 88 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Sinner | 58c | 48.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…c102backed Medvedev | 47c | 44.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed Medvedev | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Sinner | 54c | 42.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…f9d3backed Sinner | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Medvedev | 53c | 34.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Medvedev | 38c | 33.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Sinner | 68c | 18.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Sinner | 64c | 15.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca17…9ca6backed Sinner | 70c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Sinnerthis page
- BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Medvedev vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Medvedev vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Medvedev vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Medvedev vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.