Tennis · resolved market
Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f6bd1dd200bedbdf2102c19f48bbc10d625cd9ed645657b988d8577c73f4d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,446 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 1,227$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.65 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over 2.5 | 35c | 902.78$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.83 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.5 | 35c | 846.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over 2.5 | 37c | 671.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under 2.5 | 62c | 591.43$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.75 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…316cbacked Under 2.5 | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 412.75$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.75 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over 2.5 | 71c | 333.41$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.84 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 328.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under 2.5 | 67c | 303.03$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 281.34$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803f…d466backed Under 2.5 | 67c | 236.19$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…f68ebacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 234.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -56%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…c102backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 216.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 200.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef59…41f6backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 200.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…063bbacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 190.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 181.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf906…b98ebacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 2.5 | 32c | 124.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under 2.5 | 61c | 110.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc834…685fbacked Under 2.5 | 74c | 80.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over 2.5 | 33c | 71.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 53.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Over 2.5 | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d9…ef5bbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked Over 2.5 | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over 2.5 | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a5ffbacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 168 | 58.9%99 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Over 2.5 | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…22b6backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Medvedev vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Medvedev vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Medvedev vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Medvedev vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.