World Politics · resolved market
Record low border encounters in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x357b88bf7022cbe13006bdfc882cdf5ffc158a6be34c386ad4f51086c593e746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,212$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 3,658$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed No | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 1c | 1,704$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 21c | 987.75$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.49 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 5c | 819.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…910fbacked Yes | 74c | 612.08$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…6874backed No | 2c | 519.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 4c | 505$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 26c | 448.94$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 28c | 402.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 59c | 369.2$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked No | 6c | 359.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 356.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 9c | 274.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…519abacked Yes | 77c | 260.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 13c | 250.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 29c | 232.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 216.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed Yes | 71c | 212.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 25c | 194.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 70c | 189$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b27…736cbacked No | 23c | 188.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 41c | 149.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 23c | 149.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 20c | 133.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 101$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 71c | 99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 43c | 96.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee10…edc1backed No | 28c | 74.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 53c | 65.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 24c | 57.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked No | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed No | 29c | 37.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…9c2abacked Yes | 72c | 34.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…a8cebacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…23f1backed Yes | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…e05abacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0a2cbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…2cb6backed No | 63c | 23.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 71c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.