Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35bd13541e15078855bdf2214f75273934eaf503667d80215e00e66f401bd234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 600$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 509.42$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 505.19$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 505.08$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.08 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 66c | 492.22$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.43 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 339.58$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 332.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 310.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.67 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 299.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 288$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 280.32$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 272.94$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 236.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 225.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 59c | 187.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 176.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 165$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 153.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 51c | 146.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 41c | 124.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 119.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 116.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 87.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 67c | 76.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 60c | 71.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 71.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 47c | 58.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 50.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 37c | 50.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 21c | 50.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 49.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 45.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 64c | 45.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 41.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 38c | 41.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 37c | 38.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 39c | 36.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 34c | 35.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 61c | 33.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 32.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 72c | 29.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 68c | 29.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 28.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 61c | 27.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 26.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 65c | 26.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 26.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 60c | 25.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…5e40backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 42c | 24.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 22.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 64c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 66c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 19.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 17.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.