Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cb2eeb5c8e54a8d9a0a3699348ab0e34f648b43f315887ba767b947b86ae90e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 56c | 2,820$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.95 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,256$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…5cf0backed Yes | 2c | 1,026$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 44c | 916$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 797$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 740.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 38c | 573.33$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.14 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 47c | 487.01$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 68c | 450$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.88 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 436.09$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 30c | 358.43$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 339.58$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 333.01$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 330.34$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 326.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 31c | 301.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 20c | 299.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 291.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 45c | 280$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 257.51$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 78c | 251.89$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 241.2$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 238.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 237.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 210.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 203.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 44c | 192.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 177.35$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 14c | 158.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 43c | 152$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 149.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked No | 62c | 142.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 142.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…0fbbbacked Yes | 43c | 142$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 13c | 125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 63c | 109.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…bfc3backed Yes | 44c | 99.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 63c | 99.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…45f8backed Yes | 44c | 96.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 47c | 88.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 23c | 84.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc838…b09cbacked Yes | 44c | 82.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 37c | 81.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 81.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 71.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 64.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 63.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 55.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 54.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 53.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 59c | 50.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 49.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 48.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 46.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 46.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 76c | 34.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 35c | 34.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 34.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 32.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…7d5abacked Yes | 31c | 32.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 65c | 30.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 29.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 29.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd1…ed4bbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 78c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 24.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 24.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 49c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 22.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 65c | 21.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 70c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.