MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35bf6b5d4bc7bb376b718b104703a7b1aea0a3ff988aa303c5eb4db739a05bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc345…2c35backed New York Mets | 41c | 1,534$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.38 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked New York Mets | 39c | 1,006$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.13 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 976.6$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.87 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 951.9$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.96 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 527.52$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.88 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 499.56$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 15c | 479.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Mets | 48c | 319.82$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked New York Mets | 37c | 275.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed New York Mets | 59c | 271.12$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 52c | 227.45$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 192.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 150.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Mets | 42c | 138.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed New York Mets | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed New York Mets | 60c | 112.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed New York Mets | 48c | 111.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New York Mets | 42c | 109.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 108$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 73.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 64.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 56.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 40c | 49.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…4f66backed New York Mets | 50c | 48.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 48.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 47.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 45.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 39.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -17.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed New York Mets | 68c | 39.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed New York Mets | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 29.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed New York Mets | 42c | 28.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed New York Mets | 49c | 28.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked New York Mets | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 12.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.