MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e6ce22c1d57cc7dbae45af08790a96cc58f123e88af7b25bcda06addb09a85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 57c | 2,680$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.65 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 43c | 2,500$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 513.37$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.62 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Under | 57c | 462$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.34 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 12c | 325.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 305.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Over | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 56c | 207.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 43c | 198$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 44c | 188.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 143.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Under | 8c | 119$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed Over | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 105.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked Over | 45c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 72c | 98.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 93.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 41c | 91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…5ccabacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…d57fbacked Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…da0cbacked Under | 57c | 74.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 50.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 48.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Under | 57c | 46.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 57c | 38.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Under | 46c | 29.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Under | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 57c | 19.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.