MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35332b7c992c2f3541d885e95303f4a3842c7d15dab4aee8e9824c290d4068eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 42c | 1,785$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 1,383$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.61 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 56c | 857$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 403.25$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 305$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed New York Yankees | 72c | 295$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7backed New York Yankees | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 233.21$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed New York Yankees | 33c | 227.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 225.78$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 210$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed New York Yankees | 33c | 166.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 160.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed New York Yankees | 50c | 152.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 140.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed New York Yankees | 53c | 128$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 73c | 100.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 72c | 98.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New York Yankees | 37c | 82.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 53c | 81.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 75.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…e4d5backed New York Yankees | 35c | 63.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked New York Yankees | 34c | 62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked New York Yankees | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 54.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…262ebacked New York Yankees | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 25c | 47.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed New York Yankees | 48c | 33.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 30.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Yankees | 57c | 29.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…f967backed New York Yankees | 35c | 28.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 27.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 25.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Yankees | 59c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 18.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed New York Yankees | 76c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.