Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36165f6a00d115f55a260863f68a4bba61e08169f4c82b635679baa47c601cc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 24c | 760.54$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.89 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 52c | 564.21$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.62 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 505.55$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 64c | 481.25$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 76c | 431.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 370.72$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 37c | 339.45$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.42 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 298.8$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 67c | 280.86$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 31c | 205$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 180.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 173.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 63c | 168.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 52c | 151.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 145.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 29c | 123.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 118.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 117.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 68c | 115.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 49c | 101.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 31c | 97.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 70c | 96.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 22c | 93.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 88.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 86.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 40c | 83.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 63c | 81.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 59c | 76.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 67c | 74.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 72c | 71.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 66c | 67.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 58c | 65.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…870bbacked Yes | 47c | 63.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 41c | 60.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 59.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked No | 38c | 59.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 54.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 53.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 52.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 63c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 44c | 51.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 66c | 48.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 47.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 47.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 64c | 44.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…a908backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…6ddfbacked No | 31c | 37.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 36c | 35.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 48c | 35.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…bba7backed Yes | 76c | 30.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 50c | 27.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 25.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 22.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 51c | 21.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 20.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2f…c23ebacked Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.