Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48341019559bf3784fd1fdd3033e8447f5d627c6b894e72bb9b329998c576f59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 499.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 52c | 324.66$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 305.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 298.8$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 40c | 251.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 76c | 188.09$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 175.33$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 38c | 166.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 154.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 139.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed Yes | 25c | 123.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 62c | 121.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 109.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…870bbacked Yes | 30c | 101.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 39c | 88.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 87.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 80c | 87.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 38c | 87.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 43c | 86.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 85.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 85.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 83.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 76.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 66c | 75.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 75.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 73.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 71.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 70.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 61.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 31c | 55.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 22c | 53.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 53.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f8…1a89backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 49.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 47.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 41c | 42.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 37.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 35.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 30.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 30.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 25.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 64c | 25.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 24.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 67c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 61c | 21.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…60ebbacked No | 78c | 16.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 64c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.