Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x361b20b46e77b912de8936e1b2f798f53f3a70388b16e1ba9d5fb90cf4c49fa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 33c | 672$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.11 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 35c | 396.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.01 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 11c | 329.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 212$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.75 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 44c | 148.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 30c | 138$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 13c | 117.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 91.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 84.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 79.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 76.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 72.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 39c | 69.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 69.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 65.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 62.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 33c | 59.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 73c | 57.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 53c | 53.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 68c | 49.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 62c | 48.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 64c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 37.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 35.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 34.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 72c | 33.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 33.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 35c | 33.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 30.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 65c | 22.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 16.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 68c | 16.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.