Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3626e36dc1240c93e7b5f84c7cec9d384414f43fbd81fd0e9beb68990b16ca48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bd5…6428backed Under | 78c | 2,570$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62a…aecfbacked Over | 19c | 1,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Under | 78c | 1,540$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 22c | 610.41$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Over | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 23c | 347.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…779dbacked Under | 78c | 309.73$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 12c | 265$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 261.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…924abacked Over | 23c | 218.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 23c | 190.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Under | 79c | 179.18$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 77c | 177$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Over | 21c | 144.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Over | 22c | 134.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 77c | 124$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 78c | 77.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 21c | 71.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe7…6ab1backed Over | 24c | 56.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 78c | 39.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Under | 76c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- AS Roma vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Roma vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.