Tennis · resolved market
Merida Open Akron: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Heather Watson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x362b6a7795ccade9053119a83d9015d946c9936bbbb781467d34690afea2d6f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maneiroof Maneiro, Watson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b96…b053backed Maneiro | 76c | 2,700$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Maneiro | 78c | 2,560$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.1 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Watson | 23c | 2,524$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.07 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Watson | 22c | 2,496$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.12 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Maneiro | 78c | 1,578$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.3 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maneiro | 73c | 1,385$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.16 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Maneiro | 76c | 1,189$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.45 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Watson | 12c | 995.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Watson | 25c | 906.59$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.11 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Watson | 24c | 876.35$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Watson | 24c | 793.65$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.99 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Watson | 35c | 750$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Maneiro | 76c | 750$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.25 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Maneiro | 71c | 730.14$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.52 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Maneiro | 77c | 563.38$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 196 | 53.6%105 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Watson | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Watson | 23c | 460.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…20a3backed Watson | 24c | 400$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Maneiro | 77c | 384.61$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 205 | 42.4%87 W · 118 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…9d56backed Watson | 24c | 372$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Maneiro | 74c | 335.41$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Watson | 23c | 314.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Maneiro | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Watson | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Watson | 5c | 280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 442 | 29.6%131 W · 311 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Watson | 5c | 280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 139 | 23.7%33 W · 106 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…6a0abacked Watson | 28c | 266.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Maneiro | 74c | 258.59$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Watson | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Watson | 24c | 220.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Maneiro | 74c | 214.4$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maneiro | 72c | 204.41$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Watson | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Maneiro | 78c | 199$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Watson | 26c | 196$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Maneiro | 76c | 169.73$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Maneiro | 74c | 166.54$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 206 | 64.1%132 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Watson | 10c | 164$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Maneiro | 77c | 153.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Watson | 24c | 153$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Watson | 20c | 132.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…2f3fbacked Watson | 24c | 124.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Watson | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Watson | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Maneiro | 76c | 101$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Maneiro | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Maneiro | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Watson | 23c | 93.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb32…787dbacked Maneiro | 77c | 92.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Maneiro | 73c | 82.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maneiro | 72c | 81.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…b82cbacked Maneiro | 73c | 81.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Watson | 24c | 76.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Watson | 30c | 74.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…9577backed Maneiro | 72c | 73.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…0d1fbacked Maneiro | 72c | 71.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 349 | 65%227 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Watson | 25c | 68.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Maneiro | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Maneiro | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 600 | 55.7%334 W · 266 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Watson | 23c | 62.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Watson | 25c | 60.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Watson | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Maneiro | 77c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Watson | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Watson | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Watson | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Maneiro | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 210 | 72.4%152 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Maneiro | 78c | 38.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…e557backed Maneiro | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 83 | 74.7%62 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Maneiro | 60c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 341 | 49.9%170 W · 171 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Maneiro | 77c | 21.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Maneiro | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 355 | 59.4%211 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Maneiro | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 127 | 65.4%83 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…ad29backed Maneiro | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…f07ebacked Maneiro | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Merida Open Akron: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Heather Watsonthis page
- Set Handicap: Maneiro (-1.5) vs Watson (+1.5)Maneiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.