Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3635539e1e0823a561ed0007b5e5d2f18961e37fa100953ea7838bc6391dd668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,934$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.83 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 50c | 1,553$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.34 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,400$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.03 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16c…a3aabacked No | 64c | 1,383$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 1,205$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.8 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,125$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.65 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 62c | 939.91$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.89 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 42c | 776.57$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.56 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 687.46$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.06 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked No | 18c | 614.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.58 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 53c | 483.45$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.35 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +27.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 35c | 441$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.66 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked Yes | 76c | 437.19$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.57 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 63c | 421.8$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed No | 61c | 410$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 66c | 306$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 63c | 270.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 58c | 251.22$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 50c | 243.52$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 15c | 207$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 62c | 206.65$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 63c | 143.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 37c | 143.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 53c | 138.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 22c | 134.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 12c | 129.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 79c | 88.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 79c | 85.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 36c | 79.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 138 | 49.3%68 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 26c | 73.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 55c | 68.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked No | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65e5…0cadbacked Yes | 17c | 60.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed No | 64c | 57.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Yes | 33c | 54.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Yes | 37c | 48.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 37c | 48.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 38c | 47.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Yes | 36c | 39.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…61f1backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e9…8077backed Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 40c | 32.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Yes | 69c | 17.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…6d30backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-30?this page
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.