Asian League · resolved market
Will Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42ebf2fc3a08bb9cc2135b54f5aee99e2b01eb83e84ffa963b780de70a5ae13e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 2,573$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.31 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 28c | 2,500$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 58c | 1,492$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.91 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 69c | 975.32$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.97 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 40c | 592.77$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.99 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 62c | 563$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.42 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 504.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 922 | 35.1%324 W · 598 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 44c | 455.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.34 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 37c | 428.32$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.53 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 22c | 337.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 720 | 44.2%318 W · 402 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 69c | 299.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 23c | 291.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 48c | 283.57$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.99 | 184 | 42.4%78 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 69c | 260$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 69c | 260$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 50c | 238.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…accbbacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 165$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 71c | 144$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 197 | 65.5%129 W · 68 L | +27.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Yes | 36c | 134.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 27c | 104.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 582 | 43%250 W · 332 L | -26.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 64c | 103.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Yes | 36c | 82.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 63c | 75.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 16c | 69.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…892ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Yes | 59c | 54.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 53.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 53.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…312fbacked Yes | 22c | 53.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 70c | 53.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 70c | 46.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 44c | 46.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 45.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 53c | 43.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…490cbacked Yes | 73c | 38.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 217 | 54.4%118 W · 99 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…e961backed No | 66c | 27.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,022 | 41.5%424 W · 598 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed Yes | 72c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-30?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.