MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3673d462b1a377ef541a7a788b053b87152b34909778b9a4e8f22ffe8512d61e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 4,435$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Over | 52c | 4,299$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.46 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 3,502$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 3,480$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 46c | 2,617$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.18 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 1,986$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,320$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 34c | 1,245$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.77 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 35c | 1,146$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.57 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 1,026$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 46c | 1,017$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.67 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 48c | 938.78$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…fe3bbacked Under | 4c | 891.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 5cpaid | +609.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 54c | 883.64$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.47 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…0fcabacked Under | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 62c | 796$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 56c | 677.78$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 54c | 555.94$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 49c | 552.09$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.28 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 406.37$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…3d6fbacked Under | 55c | 383$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 54c | 362$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.52 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Under | 44c | 307$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 51c | 302.04$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 61c | 249$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 51c | 195.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 55c | 143.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 125.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 60c | 123.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Under | 44c | 109.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 14c | 104.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 21c | 103.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…0acbbacked Under | 23c | 85.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 19c | 75.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 55c | 71.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 54c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 44c | 54.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 52.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 46c | 37.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 43c | 31.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…7fefbacked Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 44c | 28.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 54c | 25.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 25.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 51c | 22.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.