TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,195 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under3c9,200$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284498.2%4 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+173.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc0…5765backed Over48c6,000$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.99875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+36.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over44c5,187$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,904.832152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Under56c4,425$2,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.0855053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over44c3,525$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,988.958,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under51c2,980$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.61,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over39c2,499$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932d…8529backed Under1c2,196$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9611346%52 W · 61 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under52c1,806$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.951,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under59c1,677$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.998943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under48c1,447$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.546,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under44c1,346$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.6611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over43c1,343$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.363,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under56c1,295$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.356,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Over50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60021767.7%147 W · 70 L+36.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over33c1,182$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.829147.3%43 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over50c1,166$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.419,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under68c1,132$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7701656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under59c1,017$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60019153.9%103 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under57c1,015$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.114,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over44c1,007$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.85,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5709655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over43c999.99$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5705,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over43c809$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.878,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Under64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked Over42c723$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.3411748.7%57 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under60c662$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.230647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over35c532$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.641,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over43c521.85$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.4573748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under64c484.7$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.9910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under52c465$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.74,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under67c451.75$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.832,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under63c412.69$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.252,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under63c403.14$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.912,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under66c310.33$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.692,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over43c270.74$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.322,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca3…f975backed Under54c238.89$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbc9…d80bbacked Over32c230.36$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.643554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Over59c209$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.698245.1%37 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over42c189$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.951,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under56c180$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Over44c167.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.881,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Over32c126.78$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.2126762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over33c119.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.636,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Over38c106.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8644737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2573…2726backed Under57c105.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023051.7%119 W · 111 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under69c102.52$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.91,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Under49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494360.5%26 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f70…862abacked Over60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.321392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.34per pick58cpaid+62.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over47c91.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.655,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1440…1a39backed Over35c90.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.112450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa20d…eadebacked Under57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020446.6%95 W · 109 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2f0…78cfbacked Under59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502860.7%17 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under40c73.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.373,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under55c72.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.772,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over33c67.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.311,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Under76c61.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0866056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Under34c51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3423244%102 W · 130 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under57c50.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0270455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over43c50.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.653,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2110…d4fbbacked Over69c47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5720962.7%131 W · 78 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Under38c46.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.461,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Over24c43.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3355847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd030…f3f0backed Under26c40.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811946.2%55 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under67c40.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.264,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over58c31.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.252,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over44c31.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.472,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over67c30.91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.275,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Under61c27.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1725256.7%143 W · 109 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Over43c23.14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0883053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6e…d6debacked Under61c22.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.042560%15 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under51c20.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.478052.2%407 W · 373 L+22.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under66c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.