MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf0a2af5ad59380451e838b0d4af91e8e121623490610b78c3e886d1cbd99ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 3c | 9,200$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…5765backed Over | 48c | 6,000$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,089.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 44c | 5,187$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,904.8 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 56c | 4,425$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.08 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 3,525$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 2,980$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.6 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 2,499$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Under | 1c | 2,196$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 1,806$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.95 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under | 59c | 1,677$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.99 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 1,447$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.54 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 1,346$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 1,343$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.36 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,295$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 33c | 1,182$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.82 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 1,166$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under | 68c | 1,132$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 1,015$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 44c | 1,007$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 809$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 42c | 723$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.34 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 60c | 662$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.2 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 35c | 532$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.64 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 43c | 521.85$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.45 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 484.7$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 465$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 67c | 451.75$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.83 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 63c | 412.69$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 63c | 403.14$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.91 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 66c | 310.33$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 270.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Under | 54c | 238.89$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked Over | 32c | 230.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.64 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 59c | 209$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 42c | 189$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.95 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 44c | 167.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 32c | 126.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 33c | 119.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 38c | 106.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 69c | 102.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…862abacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 91.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…1a39backed Over | 35c | 90.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 40c | 73.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 55c | 72.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 33c | 67.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 76c | 61.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 50.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 50.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 38c | 46.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 24c | 43.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Under | 26c | 40.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 40.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 58c | 31.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 31.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 67c | 30.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 61c | 27.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 43c | 23.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…d6debacked Under | 61c | 22.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.