TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$250,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,692 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd14…d62abacked Athletics46c21,580$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00024344.4%108 W · 135 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Seattle Mariners53c21,194$11,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,961.257353.4%39 W · 34 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics47c15,563$7,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,314.71,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Athletics22c12,428$2,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,681.3995045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners52c11,670$6,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,594.3210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Athletics48c11,600$5,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,56817853.4%95 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Seattle Mariners53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70053150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Seattle Mariners53c9,569$5,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,493.051,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0140…9510backed Seattle Mariners56c6,978$3,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,055.635550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners69c6,676$4,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.838,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics31c6,429$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.778,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners55c6,402$3,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,902.922,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics6c5,528$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.2311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Athletics47c5,320$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.4528042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Athletics47c4,781$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,248.351,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics8c4,395$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.763,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics27c4,020$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.9612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics46c3,966$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.114,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Athletics6c3,943$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.421,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Athletics46c3,896$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80028944.3%128 W · 161 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners54c3,807$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.193,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners58c3,004$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.86,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Athletics11c2,691$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.642,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners53c2,648$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.366,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Seattle Mariners55c2,642$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.8321767.7%147 W · 70 L+36.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners60c2,588$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.939,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Athletics9c2,351$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.121,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b73…8688backed Athletics47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004161%25 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Athletics1c2,045$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5724639%96 W · 150 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Seattle Mariners53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94014647.3%69 W · 77 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b2e…034ebacked Seattle Mariners55c1,768$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.421752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Athletics47c1,601$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.921,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Athletics6c1,550$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8726618.4%49 W · 217 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners52c1,547$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.532,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7055,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Seattle Mariners53c1,401$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.031,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Seattle Mariners58c1,328$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.972,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0602…a12ebacked Seattle Mariners53c1,308$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Seattle Mariners55c1,197$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.581,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Athletics4c1,187$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6371850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Seattle Mariners55c1,085$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.581,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Athletics47c1,058$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.7173748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Seattle Mariners53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4701,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Seattle Mariners54c1,000$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46555052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8d…a92abacked Seattle Mariners53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47023754%128 W · 109 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Seattle Mariners54c999.95$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9816848.2%81 W · 87 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Seattle Mariners54c926.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.597050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Seattle Mariners58c914.59$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.831,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Seattle Mariners54c857.98$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.6769453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Seattle Mariners57c846.34$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.9579255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Seattle Mariners54c819.99$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38189053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa969…1a84backed Seattle Mariners53c787$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8917452.9%92 W · 82 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4460…54d1backed Athletics46c781.82$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Seattle Mariners53c748.85$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.862,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Seattle Mariners54c729$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.9573949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fba…26dcbacked Seattle Mariners55c727$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.1523152.8%122 W · 109 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Athletics48c694$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.1219950.3%100 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd2a…315ebacked Athletics6c665$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Athletics5c596.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.351,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics26c559.68$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.993,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners54c557.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.431,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics16c551.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.241,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Seattle Mariners56c522.07$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.3532450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners54c515.3$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.044,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Athletics48c510.2$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.938444.3%170 W · 214 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0167…d002backed Athletics45c499.97$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9938145.4%173 W · 208 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics45c480$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda39…c640backed Seattle Mariners54c471.19$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.751560%9 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Athletics48c417$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.161,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x909e…735cbacked Athletics46c406$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Seattle Mariners54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18439850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Seattle Mariners53c395$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.651,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Athletics46c389.45$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18040449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cc0…7faabacked Seattle Mariners53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3621347.9%102 W · 111 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics32c372.71$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.162,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Athletics46c356.15$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16550647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Athletics15c340.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024742.9%106 W · 141 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Athletics46c330$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.848354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed Athletics46c323.31$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15052947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Athletics47c317$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.991,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Athletics47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Seattle Mariners55c283.91$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.761,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Athletics35c281.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8599624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Seattle Mariners54c272.22$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2246749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners62c268.83$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.775,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f9b…a181backed Athletics46c259.48$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020543.9%90 W · 115 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Athletics26c256.15$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4684140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Seattle Mariners52c254.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.450751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb258…0d2bbacked Athletics4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Seattle Mariners54c249.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11511549.6%57 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Athletics45c240$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Athletics45c239.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b31…b13ebacked Athletics46c230.3$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Athletics46c226.32$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10567449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Seattle Mariners53c220.75$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.751,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Athletics45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0a…75acbacked Athletics46c219.74$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9546546%214 W · 251 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Athletics25c212$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5351849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4787…6de9backed Seattle Mariners55c211.25$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.06785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+69.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Seattle Mariners58c208.4$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7466056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.