MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b81d461e723e846f359c8ca4bbfbc4c2e0d44c9378b757f037cada74a965f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 2,167$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.74 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 1,950$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 677.77$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.33 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Seattle Mariners | 79c | 452.09$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 5c | 348$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 323.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 11c | 261$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 245.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed Tampa Bay Rays | 6c | 233.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 173.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Seattle Mariners | 16c | 110$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 104.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 98.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 85.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 13c | 80.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 71.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 62.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Seattle Mariners | 22c | 58.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 54.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 51.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 47.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…d404backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 35.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 21.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…076ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.