MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a95f53a7a07d0ddd10df7e36467953a4c092003fceaf366ad33a3d9e768b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 35c | 7,363$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.84 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 5,884$3,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 73c | 2,751$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.35 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 66c | 966$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 874.53$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 790.19$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.55 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 34c | 368.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 297.32$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 35c | 165.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 33c | 161.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 65c | 151.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 67c | 146$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 65c | 121.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 65c | 98.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 25c | 79.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 27c | 73.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Over | 29c | 42.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 28c | 40.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 34c | 36.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 65c | 34.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 65c | 34.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 80c | 31.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31f…a37cbacked Under | 65c | 30.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 80c | 16.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 65c | 16.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.