MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf48aad1d5f197a791349ee9243867a96baaf5c22d7028d0ec03b2fd44cef444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $267,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 54c | 217,407$117,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117,399.57 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 58,904$27,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,804.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 46c | 50,344$23,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,185.81 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 30,758$14,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,716.65 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 46c | 30,116$13,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,262.64 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…6392backed Over | 55c | 26,800$14,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,740 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 46c | 12,844$5,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,935.91 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 12,227$5,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,724.85 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 11,664$5,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,408.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 9,164$4,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,948.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 46c | 6,891$3,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,720.94 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 3,429$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.64 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 46c | 3,261$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.87 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 46c | 3,261$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.87 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 46c | 1,990$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.83 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 47c | 1,639$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.67 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,318$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 63c | 945.68$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 872$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.6 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 857.97$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 780$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.2 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 728.27$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.53 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 46c | 602.32$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.25 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 457$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.78 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 444.54$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.31 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 46c | 427.3$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.74 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 46c | 361.85$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.4 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 12c | 340$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 216$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 46c | 209$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 46c | 204.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.35 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 44c | 198.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 175.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 57c | 172.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…68f7backed Under | 48c | 158.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 46c | 149.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 125.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 54c | 116.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 46c | 113$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Under | 46c | 111.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 56c | 109.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Under | 46c | 108.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 56c | 105.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 100.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Over | 49c | 98.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 95.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 56c | 94.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 52c | 92.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 46c | 91.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 41c | 67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 44c | 66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 52c | 62.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 56c | 53.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 56c | 53.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 46c | 52.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…437fbacked Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 55c | 45.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…9702backed Over | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…61eabacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 46c | 37.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 46c | 31.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Under | 46c | 26.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…d7f4backed Under | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 52c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.