MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb45dc837b10539a0552080db3309982cffca9e8904b0197fe105909ec3abb68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb272…5030backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 7,500$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 7,417$4,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 1,253$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 986.45$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.07 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 837.5$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.37 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 376.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 333.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 288$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 248.57$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 182.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 166$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 117.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 112.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 105.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 74.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 73.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 66.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 59.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 53.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 46.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 45.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 33.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 31.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.