MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9cd358f5bb5bd1c322be7c218efbe5f80422d1759c15f6aa52684f27b901ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 58c | 32,090$18,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,477.88 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 42c | 16,664$6,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 10,542$4,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,397.46 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Under | 59c | 8,475$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 5,190$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 40c | 3,888$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.07 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 60c | 2,105$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.8 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Over | 42c | 1,743$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.06 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 42c | 1,152$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.8 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 58c | 1,122$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.16 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 956.19$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 42c | 853$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.26 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Under | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Over | 42c | 800$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 42c | 689.63$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.64 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 557.04$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 57c | 548.63$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.91 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 516.94$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.95 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 16c | 442.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 41c | 263$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 42c | 253.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 42c | 253.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 217$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 31c | 208.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 42c | 190.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 40c | 175.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 59c | 175$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 41c | 165$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 99.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Over | 42c | 85.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 375 | 46.9%176 W · 199 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 62c | 78.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 20c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 57.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 57.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 28c | 54.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…79ddbacked Over | 42c | 49.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 41c | 46.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Over | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 278 | 52.2%145 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 28c | 38.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 28c | 37.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Over | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 42c | 36.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 33c | 36.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…0eb4backed Over | 42c | 27.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 42c | 26.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.