Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36ddac4cc32c3e1154c163242f475dd65b64b3b5b1815e930210366838181cfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 3c | 1,122$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 568.82$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 69c | 312.22$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.41 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 287$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 268.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 221.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 75c | 213.04$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.86 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 31c | 151.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 71c | 141.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 126.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 70c | 115.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 32c | 109.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 74c | 95.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 42c | 94.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 90.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 40c | 88.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 86.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 21c | 83.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 34c | 80.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 79c | 77.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 19c | 72.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 76c | 70.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 45c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 32c | 66.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 56.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 35c | 53.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 42c | 51.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 27c | 50.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 47.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 47.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 25c | 46.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 30c | 45.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 36c | 44.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 43.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 43.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 41.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 41.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 38.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 37.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 32c | 37.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 35.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 33.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 62c | 30.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 28.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 56c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 73c | 26.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 25.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 71c | 25.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…feb2backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 71c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 75c | 16.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…6a6abacked Yes | 77c | 15.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 69c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 75c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.