MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3700ca96f891fccf83f3bb6f49a35d9522ed3f5503817cf05cfe2d5288394a29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 7,148$4,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,716.77 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 30c | 3,699$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.12 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 42c | 3,159$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.18 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 42c | 1,551$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.31 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Yankees | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 877.46$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.62 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 753.97$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.7 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 38c | 745.04$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.14 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed New York Yankees | 42c | 733.76$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.5 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed New York Yankees | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 682.29$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.56 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 626.41$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked New York Yankees | 44c | 312.59$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed New York Yankees | 38c | 280$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…418abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed New York Yankees | 8c | 221$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 214.32$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 155.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Yankees | 26c | 153.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 44c | 107.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked New York Yankees | 41c | 100.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 98.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 97.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed New York Yankees | 38c | 88.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 77.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed New York Yankees | 42c | 77.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 56.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 54.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed New York Yankees | 33c | 48.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 46.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 36.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed New York Yankees | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed New York Yankees | 38c | 31.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees | 38c | 31.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed New York Yankees | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 25.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.