MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf905c3f092bf286fe5f514772fc2bcae3ede047ca3564f377d8a690f63a608a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked New York Yankees | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 42c | 2,493$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 2,000$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 1,770$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 62c | 1,060$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…f43ebacked New York Yankees | 52c | 1,054$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…7df6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 981.97$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 49c | 965.56$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.07 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked New York Yankees | 2c | 914.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 646.89$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 37c | 588.96$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 518.9$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.14 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 73c | 399$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.27 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 366.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.69 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 32c | 303$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…0defbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 302.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.98 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 280$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Yankees | 5c | 259.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 204.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed New York Yankees | 38c | 202$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed New York Yankees | 74c | 189.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 186.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.83 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed New York Yankees | 7c | 170.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Yankees | 69c | 154.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 138.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 124$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Yankees | 9c | 122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 103.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked New York Yankees | 74c | 92.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked New York Yankees | 77c | 91.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 89.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 70.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Yankees | 43c | 60.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed New York Yankees | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed New York Yankees | 74c | 54.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 53.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked New York Yankees | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 43.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 74c | 39.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed New York Yankees | 74c | 36.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed New York Yankees | 77c | 32.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked New York Yankees | 74c | 19.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed New York Yankees | 74c | 19.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 80c | 16.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.